ODISHA’S TRILLION DOLLAR PUSH: AN ECONOMIC VISION OR A POLITICAL MIRAGE?

Mr. Naveen Patnaik has clearly laid down the marker. At a time when most opposition leaders are busy painting a gloom and doom scenario for Indian economy he firmly believes that the time has come for Odisha and its people to take an exponential leap in its economic journey. For starters, such a mind-set must be appreciated especially when one observes Chief ministers of neighbouring states busy either clamouring for special economic status or deeply concerned about IT exemption for Durga Puja pandals. Secondly, it sends out a powerful and positive message to the nation at large. Growth and development narrative cannot be monopolised by the national parties. The States are a powerful engine of growth and they play a key role in achieving the larger economic goal of the nation. This announcement of intent  is a welcome development and comes in as a whiff of fresh air with the potential of re-aligning the tangled skein of center-state relations.

However, articulating a dream is the easier part. Converting the dream into a vision and translating the vision into a reality demands a high level of  statecraft and statesmanship.  Aligning the different arms of the Government, the divided political diaspora and the masses to achieve the seemingly impossible is the need of the hour. Recently the Indian Chambers of Commerce (ICC) was ideating in a day long seminar on the challenges in the Human Resources front to achieve this trillion dollar dream. While there was a consensus that a quantum economic growth is possible, speaker after speaker simultaneously gave the impression that somewhere the missing blueprint to achieve this  dream was becoming the biggest impediment for a tangible and co-ordinated ground level action.

Steel and Aluminium are two sectors where an exponential  growth is possible and merits a closer look. It’s manufacture critically depends on the availability of iron ore, bauxite and coal, all of which are abundantly available within the State. It is rightly said that Odisha produces more than 50%  of the nation’s aluminium and therefore has the bragging rights of calling itself the Aluminium capital of the country. However, talking in percentages is clearly indulging in self-deception. As a nation we produce a measly quantity of four million tonnes of Aluminium compared to China that produces almost ten times more than us. By producing 50% of this small quantity we cannot take comfort behind this figure. Juxtaposed along with the fact that Odisha is home to more than 50% of the nation's bauxite reserves and  30% of coal reserves it becomes clear that a quantum growth in Aluminium production and consumption is distinctly possible and so far Odisha has underperformed. We must face this fact square on otherwise we will continue to lull ourselves into complacency. Given our potential,we must now put a blueprint in place for doubling the Aluminium production in the next five years if we are serious about the one trillion dollar ambition.

Steel too has a similar story. Odisha’s iron ore reserves are humungus and can support a steel production Capacity of around 100 million tonnes by 2030 -  five  times of what it is producing today. These figures are not just plucked from thin air. They are rooted in the potential that is prevalent in the state. The Hebei province of China, for example, is producing a massive 190 million tonnes of steel. It occupies an area less than 2% of the country and yet makes a contribution of more than 4% of the GDP of China. Just one steel company - Hesteel produces more than 45 million tonnes of steel which constitutes almost 50% of what the whole of India produces. Clearly, we need to put an action plan in place that will ensure Odisha’s steel production to grow from 20 million tonnes to 100 million tonnes in the next ten years. Besides producing  steel and aluminium our focus should be on providing an ecosystem of downstream industries that will use this primary metal to produce the value added end products.

A similar deep dive analysis has to be done for other segments of the economy like agriculture and food processing, Small scale Industries, tourism and service sector etc.

60% of the population of Odisha depends on agriculture. The processed food market in India is poised to grow at a CAGR of 14.6%. Blessed with ten agro-climatic zones, Odisha can produce a wide array of crops ranging from rice to millets, mangoes to cashew nuts, sugarcane to tumeric, ginger to potato etc. It’s water bodies and coastline enables it to be a big player in fisheries and shrimps too. Odisha can easily become the food and seafood basket of the region and coupled with food processing and value addition the entire rural sector can move up the value chain and usher in a quantum growth in livelihood and prosperity.

A similar co-ordinated approach needs to be taken about the MSME sector. For far too long we have been stuck with the idea that a startup is possible only in the IT and Services sector. We must develop a fund for startups in the MSME sector also. This must be preceded with a proper analysis of the reasons of the sickness that plagues this segment followed by development of MSME parks at every district if not block of the State.

Tourism and Hospitality segment too is another fast growing sector and Odisha has enormous scope in making a quantum growth in this area. According to estimates Tourism is set to generate a revenue of over 50 billion dollars compared to 27billion dollars earned in 2017. For Odisha to be part of this growth curve it must invest in tourism infrastructure to make it world class. It has enough of beaches, heritage sites, wildlife and eco tourism to attract both domestic and international footfalls.

To be fair the government has set in motion a series of administrative measures that conveys its seriousness. The  5 T’s aim at achieving progress through Transparency, Teamwork, Technology, Time and Transformation. Identification of aspirational districts is another positive step forward. Health, Sanitation and Housing for all has seen a lot of progress. This goes a long way in building a trust between the Government and its people. The urgent need of the hour however is to first sensitize the masses and positively enthuse them with the idea that quantum economic growth is an idea whose time has come. Secondly, Government must create multiple task forces and expert committees that will lay down the blueprint for each segment of the economy with specific recommendations and time frames to achieve the target. Changing the mindset of the people and empowering them will be the cornerstone of Odisha’s trillion dollar economy push.